Nathan Chen weighs unknown variables of next figure skating season

Nathan Chen weighs unknown variables of next figure skating season

Nathan Chen is a statistics and data science major at Yale.

But even his fluency in those subjects can’t help Chen much now in finding answers to questions about his future.

“Too many variables,” Chen said this week via telephone from California.

Not to mention all the complete unknowns in any equation Chen might use to help define his plans.

For the two-time defending figure skating world champion, that starts with the unknown about when he can back on the ice for the first time since the 2020 World Championships were cancelled in mid-March because of the coronavirus pandemic.

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New math: Figure skating’s latest recalculations change skaters’ formula for success

New math: Figure skating’s latest recalculations change skaters’ formula for success

In the ever-changing calculus of figure skating’s mathlympics, the latest recalculations change some of Nathan Chen’s formula for success.

His two highest-valued jumps, the quadruple Lutz and quad flip, no longer add up to much – or as much – of an advantage.

When Chen hit his first quad Lutz in 2016, the element had a base value of 13.6 points, the highest score for a jump anyone has landed in competition. At that time, a quad Lutz was worth 1.3 points more than a quad flip and 1.6 more than a quad loop.

By last season, when Chen won his second straight world title with brilliant quad Lutzes in the short program and free skate, the jump’s value had been reduced to 11.5, compared to 11.0 for the flip and 10.5 for the loop.

Next season, according to the scale-of-value list the International Skating Union published last week, the Lutz, flip and loop all will have a base value of 11.0. And the Lutz now will be worth just 1.5 more than the mundane quad toe loop after having been worth 3.3 more back in 2016.

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For many Olympic-related sports bodies in the USA, surviving fiscal impact of pandemic would be like winning a gold

For many Olympic-related sports bodies in the USA, surviving fiscal impact of pandemic would be like winning a gold

U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee chief executive Sarah Hirshland sounded the storm warning last week, in a virtual staff meeting as well as a letter and Q-and-A fact sheet to the USOPC’s constituents.

Hirshland did it again Tuesday in an athlete town meeting call that a person who listened to it described as “pretty much the same doom and gloom.”

She told of USOPC budget cuts of 10-to-20 percent that could include staff cuts and already include voluntary salary cuts of 20 percent (Hirshland) and 10 percent (the other eight top executives). And then there was the ominous passage, about the impact on the USOPC if the postponed-until-2021 Tokyo Olympics have to be cancelled because of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The impact of a cancellation would be devastating to our athletes, first and foremost, but also to our financial health and stability,” said the FAQ sheet, a copy of which was obtained by Globetrotting. “We would survive such a scenario, but the impact would be severe.”

The USOPC can survive because it has an endowment in excess of $200 million it could use in a “`worst-case’ scenario.” That has not yet become the situation, the FAQ said, but it reach that level if Tokyo 2020 does not take place – a possibility evoked by two prominent members of Japan’s medical community in the last 10 days.

Cancellation would create a much more dire situation for the National Governing Bodies that help train and support the athletes who become part of U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams. Many would go from weathering the storm to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

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With 2020 worlds definitively gone, skaters like Jason Brown try to stay on peak while off ice in uncertain times

With 2020 worlds definitively gone, skaters like Jason Brown try to stay on peak while off ice in uncertain times

Thursday’s unsurprising news that the 2020 World Figure Skating Championships were definitively cancelled had minimal impact on Rafael Arutunian.

The impact of having little else definitive about figure skating’s future schedule is what Arutunian struggles to deal with.

“We knew this is what would be done with worlds,” said Arutunian, coach of two-time reigning world champion Nathan Chen. “What happens now with next season?”

The International Skating Union’s governing council hopes to provide some clarity about that after it meets again by conference call April 28. Even then, though, most of its answers will have to be prefaced by a literal or understood “if,” since there remains little certainty about the further development of the coronavirus pandemic and its consequent effect on the world of sport.

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Update: ISU Congress postponed to 2021, decision upcoming on rescheduling 2020 figure skating worlds (very likely, "no”), plus my exclusive info on bigger future worlds

Update: ISU Congress postponed to 2021, decision upcoming on rescheduling 2020 figure skating worlds (very likely, "no”), plus my exclusive info on bigger future worlds

This week, there will definitely be a decision on one major International Skating Union event cancelled by the coronavirus pandemic.

That will be followed soon after by a decision on another – even if the fate of the latter, the 2020 World Figure Skating Championships, seems pretty much a foregone conclusion already.

The ISU asked its members to vote on the future of the organization’s biennial policy-making Congress, which had been scheduled for this June 8-12 in Phuket, Thailand. The ballot offered three choices: 1) postponement until June 2021; 2) definite cancellation; 3) abstention.

Votes are due today. Once they are in, the ISU Council will meet by teleconference to discuss the result and matters related to the 2020 worlds, the 2020-21 season and seasons after that.

No 2020 worlds and more skaters at future worlds are involved.

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